The Impact of Gubernatorial and State Legislative Elections in November

Thirty-seven gubernatorial elections are scheduled for November 2, 2010.

This adds up to the largest block of states ever up for grabs in a single election year, and the balance of which party has more seats in the air and where key races lean has turned the gubernatorial contests into arguably the race to watch in 2010. Three states that make up almost one-fourth of the entire U.S. House of Representatives - California, Florida and Texas - are all in play, and according to polling I am reading, are far from settled.

Four more states that are considered key signalers of the nation’s mood ahead of Presidential years - Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania - are also electing governors this fall.

Not since the early 1920s has one party stood to gain so much in the gubernatorial elections ahead of a redistricting year. Of the 37 seats in play, at least a dozen states are likely to gain or lose House seats when districts are redrawn next year. And many of those states give significant input to the governor in dividing up Congressional seats.

The Democrats are defending their hold on 19 of those seats, while Republicans are the defenders in 18 states, including Utah, where there is a special election.

In addition to other issues that candidates are addressing during their races, such as taxes, schools and roads, the most important in my mind is the state budget problems that have been greatly exacerbated by the recession. This issue alone is creating political difficulties for incumbents of both parties.

In the 50 states, there are 99 state legislative chambers altogether, and 88 of the 99 chambers are holding state legislative elections on November 2, 2010.

The 11 chambers without elections in 2010 (except for an occasional special election) are the upper houses and lower houses in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia, and the upper house (state senate) in Kansas, New Mexico and South Carolina.

1,167 of the country’s 1,971 state senate seats are up for re-election in November.
4,958 (91.6%) of the country’s 5,413 state house seats are up for re-election.
Altogether, 6,125 of the country’s 7,384 state legislative seats are up for re-election in this volatile election year.

Analysis in USA Today and the Wall Street Journal in April 2010 say the U.S. Congressional and state legislative redistricting that will take place after the 2010 census is at the front of the minds of national GOP and Democratic strategists, when they think about state legislative outcomes.

Nationally, leading into the November 2010 election, Republicans control the governor’s office, state House and state Senate in 9 nine states, while Democrats enjoy what is called “total control” in 16.

According to Tim Storey, an elections analyst for the National Conference of State Legislatures, when it comes to 2010′s state legislative elections, “This is going to be an extremely challenging year for Democrats for a variety of reasons…History is not on their side. Since 1900, the party in the White House loses seats in the legislature in every midterm except for 1934 and 2002. That’s a 2-25 losing streak for the party in the White House — a tough trend to break. Add to that the fact that Democrats are riding high right now at over 55 percent of all seats, and it shapes up to be possibly the worst election for Democrats since 1994.”

As a follow up to the election on November 2^nd, HIMSS is hosting a post-election analysis of state and federal elections from a panel of experts, including Tim Storey, who will share their perspectives on election outcomes and potential impact on health IT policy. This one-hour webinar—free for HIMSS members—is scheduled for November 5, 2010 at noon ET. Online registration is now open.

http://www.himss.org/asp/ContentRedirector.asp?ContentId=74580&cetID=0

Redistricting, it has often been said, turns the traditional definition of democracy on its head: rather than allowing voters to choose their leaders, it allows leaders to choose their voters. The new districts that will be drawn are supposed to reflect the population shifts measured by the census. In practice, though, officials in both parties often try to gerrymander districts to help themselves and their parties win more elections.

Remember, this election on November 2^nd will have such a huge impact down the line in terms of representation for a decade in Congress, and it is your responsibility to have your voice heard.

Please vote on November 2^nd!